127 Hours With A Social King

Hi everybody! (“Hi Rezips v. The World!”) As you all are undoubtedly well aware, The Academy Awards kick off in less than 24 hours. And, much like last year, I will be sharing my predictions and thoughts on the ceremony. Unlike last year, I won’t spend over 2,500 words doing it. Also unlike last year, I won’t be sharing who I thing SHOULD win, as I have not seen all the nominees (though I’m pretty close. Only major releases I haven’t seen are True Grit, Winter’s Bone and The Fighter). But what I will tell you is who will win and who the Underdog is to upset the winner. Finally, I’ll tell you the percent odds I will give my “Who Will Win” winner of winning. Here we go!

Oh, and here’s a link to the nominees to help you follow along.

Best Animated Feature

Who will win: Toy Story 3

Who to watch out for: How To Train Your Dragon

Odds of predicted winner winning: 99%

This is one of the few easy awards to predict for the evening. Pixar is usually a lock in the category, only losing with “Cars” and “Monster’s Inc.” Don’t expect “Toy Story 3″ to join that club, however, as it is also nominated for Best Picture. Whenever a film is nominated in the Best Animated Feature or Best Foreign Feature category AND the Best Picture category, it wins its smaller category.

If you need someone to go against Toy Story 3, it might as well be HTTYD, because Dreamworks has beaten Pixar before in this category. But it won’t happen this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The kid on the right? Yeah, that's the same kid from Jurassic Park.

Who will win: The Social Network

Who to watch out for: True Grit

Odds of predicted winner winning: 99%

Whoever of the Big Two wins for Best Picture, expect Aaron Sorkin to come away with this trophy. Touted for its dialog, the script about the founding of Facebook is sure to win this easy category. Its only script competition of the night would have come from The King’s Speech, but alas, that is nominated in the Best Original Category. Sorkin has taken home every major award for this, and he’ll have an Oscar as well.

The Coen Brothers have won this award before, which is why I list them here. But really, all the other nominees have an equal chance of winning among themselves. That is to say, none.

Best Original Screenplay

Who will win: The King’s Speech

Who to watch out for: The Fighter

Odds of predicted winner winning: 99%

3 for 3 in terms of locks. Trust me, those percentages are going to down quickly, but for these categories, locks are locks. The King’s Speech and The Social Network are the two films that seem to be dominating this awards season, and it fits that their screenplays are also winning award after award. The story of how it was made is almost as interesting as the film itself, and that alone would win the film its writing Oscar.

The Fighter is a lot like Rocky, and that film also won best Original Screenplay. However, like before, it’s a toss up in the “who to watch out for” category, as this award is The King’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Melissa Leo

Who to watch out for: Hailee Steinfeld

Odds of predicted winner winning: 55%

This, along with Director is one of those toss-up categories. I had a lot of trouble coming up with who I thought would win, and honestly, this will be a category that I wouldn’t be surprised to see anyone win. I say Melissa Leo because she has won the  award that Academy members vote in (Screen Actor’s Guild) whereas Steinfeld has won the critic’s awards (who are NOT Academy voters). Steinfeld could win, as this category is notorious for picking young winners and newcomers. However, it has also awarded those nominated before, and in the end, I feel that those two cancel out, and I’ll throw that extra 5% to Leo. But again, it could easily go to Steinfled.

Also look out for Helena Bonham Carter. She could ride a wave from The King’s Speech, though if anyone upsets Leo it’ll probably be Steinfeld.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win: Christian Bale

Who to watch out for: Geoffrey Rush

Odds of predicted winner winning: 75%

Bale has a good shot of winning this award. He’s picked up virtually every award sans the BAFTA, but then again, The King’s Speech would win every BAFTA with its eyes closed. With that in mind, Bale has pissed some people off in Hollywood, and that cost Mickey Rourke his Oscar. But Bale hasn’t criticized Hollywood like Rourke did, and Rush’s performance isn’t as Oscar-happy as Sean Penn’s in Milk was. 75% is about right.

Best Actress

Who will win: Natalie Portman

Who to watch out for: Annette Benning

Odds of predicted winner winning: 90%

Natalie Portman has won pretty much every major award in this category, and the Oscars are all about momentum, which is what drove Sandra Bullock to her Oscar. Annette Benning has been nominated before, which might help her, but so has Portman. After a certain number of nominations, the Oscars do generally throw an actor a bone, but not until they’re well along in nominations. Benning isn’t there yet, and so the award should go to Portman.

Best Actor

Who will win: Colin Firth

I'm g-g-g-going to w-w-w-win!

Who to watch out for: No One

Odds of predicted winner winning: 100%

Easiest pick of the night. Colin Firth has won pretty much EVERY major award in this category, and will win it again. If he doesn’t, then then expect Winter’s Bone to win Best Picture, because that would be the only upset bigger. Actor and Actress are not like Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress where they might go to left field for a winner. These are awards where past indications mean everything, and surprise winners just don’t happen here.

Best Director

Who will win: Tom Hooper

Who to watch out for: David Fincher

Odds of predicted winner winning: 60%

This is one of the most debated Oscars. Most people (including myself) expect The King’s Speech to win for Best Picture, but Director is sometimes a different boat. In past years when the Picture race is close, Best Director and Best Picture split. 2005 (Brokeback Mountain and Crash) and 1998 (Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan) are good examples. That would indicate a win for Fincher. However, I just don’t see it happening. It’s certainly possible, and if Fincher won I would not be surprised and I’d be *very* happy. But I feel like this is just too much of a momentum game for Fincher to win, and I look at this year like 2001 where Ron Howard rode A Beautiful Mind to an Oscar. One thing to keep in mind though: Hooper won the DGA award. In split years, even the splitter won (Spielberg and Ang Lee). Just something to pay attention to.

Best Picture

Who will win: The King’s Speech

Who to watch out for: The Social Network

Odds of predicted winner winning: 85%

Oscar-picking genius

This is pretty much a no-brainer. The King’s Speech has Mr. Harvey Weinstein behind it, and that pretty much means it’s going to win. The Social Network may be Pulp Fiction for this year, a film that will be looked back on as one that easily should have won over its sentimental feel-good competition (Forrest Gump). But for now, it looks like The King will win.

The thing people need to understand is that The Social Network has won most of the critic’s awards, while The King’s Speech has won most of the  guild awards. The Academy Awards voting bloc is made up of guild members, NOT critics. With that in mind, it’s pretty easy to see why The King’s Speech should edge out The Social Network.

Wrap Up

Well guys, that’s about it. Last year I was 7 of 9 in my picks, but last year was pretty easy to pick. Will I beat myself this year or just look very, VERY stupid. Tune in tomorrow night to see!