Oscar? I hardly know her!

As a huge movie buff/fan and someone who has followed the Academy Awards (and a lot of other major awards) for years, I feel that I understand the mindset of the Academy and its voters reasonably well. My predictions for major awards generally have been on, though occasionally I allow my preferences get in the way of what I know to be true. However, this year I will let you know what film/person I believe will win and what should win. In some cases, these will overlap. In others, they will not. However, I am reasonably sure that my predictions will be more right than wrong. Please let me know what you think. I’d love to see what everyone else thinks will/should win.

I’ll run through each category and give a brief synopsis of my reasoning. Before I do, however, I’d like to show everyone the list. Here it is, in all of it’s Excel-glory:

Best Animated Feature

What will win: Up

What should win: Up

“Up” has been owning this category in pretty much every major award ceremony, and with Pixar’s run in this category, this is one of the safer categories to bet on. There is also a bit of historical precedent for this, too. Whenever a film is double-nominated in a “lesser” category and in the best picture category, it most often wins its “lesser” category. The best example of this would be in the Best Foreign Film Category. The films “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and “Life is Beautiful” were both nominated for Best Foreign Film and Best Picture. They both won Best Foreign Film.

Beyond this, “Up” is just an amazing film, one of the best I’ve seen in a few years. It is funny, moving, beautifully acted, directed, written, and “shot” (I know, it’s an animated film). It (and Pixar) deserve this win, and much more.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What will win: Up in the Air

What should win: District 9

“Up in the Air” is a classic Jason Reitman film. Snappy dialog, sassy characters, and a story about average people put in mildly-unaverage situations. His last film, “Juno,” was nominated in almost identical categories (switch Actor with Actress). It walked away with just one: Best Original Screenplay. This year, the same award has been thrown at “Up in the Air” at the major awards ceremonies. The true test of how right I am will come when the WGA awards are announced, as these are the same people who will vote for this category at the Academy Awards. I predict Mr. Reitman will walk away with this award at the Academy Awards.

Now that I have said this, go watch “District 9″ and tell me if you could have made a movie about Aliens landing in South Africa more believable. It wasn’t just the special effects that had everyone caught up in this world, but the script, which blended historical commentary seamlessly with popcorn science-fiction action, along with a clever blend of documentary-style insight with 3rd person narrative. The characters are beyond one dimensional, which is hard enough to do in any movie, let alone one with an Alien co-star.

Best Original Screenplay

What will win: Inglourious Basterds

What should win: Up

I have just met you, and I love you

This will be THE most interesting category to watch, even MORE SO than Best Picture. I say this because this is a three-legged race with NO clear favorite. It will come down to “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “Up.” Each one of these films could easily walk away with this film, and all three are very deserving. The reason I picked “Basterds” only because of past precedent, and thy name is Tarantino. This is because only one other time has Tarantino been nominated for Picture, some actor, directing, and writing, and that was “Pulp Fiction.” Most people (myself included) consider “Basterds” his best work since “Pulp Fiction,” and that year Tarantino walked away with just a statue for Best Original Screenplay. Since Up and Hurt Locker will walk away with other awards, I feel that the Academy may throw Tarantino a bone, just to prove they’re “hip.” But don’t be shocked if “The Hurt Locker” wins this one, too, and “Up” could also steal it. It’s pretty much a (3-sided) coin-flip.

With all of this in mind, I once again find myself torn over which film I think should win. I give it to Up, because it’s not enough to map out a scene or some dialog, but to create an entire world and characters to fit in. The Hurt Locker is based on actual dialog, and therefore it’s a bit of a cheat that this film is in the Original Screenplay category. “Basterds” by any other writer might steal my heart, but this work is to be expected of Tarantino, and therefore it is by comparison a bit (I emphasis BIT…it’s still amazing) let deserving. However, “Up” is a triumph of the human spirit, using scenes and dialog to slowly progress a man, boy, and dog through their adventure. There are scenes with no dialog that speak more than words ever could, and the script can attest to this.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Mo’Nique

Who should win: Mo’Nique

All four of the acting categories this year are pretty easy to call, barring a MAJOR upset. This category is no exception, as Mo’Nique has walked away with all of the awards that matter, including the SAG award, whose voters also vote in this category. Her performance as an insane mother of an obese inner city child is terrifying, and one that has captured voters by storm. The supporting categories are ones that usually go to first-time actors or converts (comedy to drama), such as Heath Ledger or Jennifer Hudson. Expect Mo’Nique to give one of her big-ass speeches that make everyone hoot, holler, and cry.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win: Christoph Waltz

Who should win: Christoph Waltz

The Nicest Nazi Ever. Sorta.

If you’re not a gambling person, put money on this. It’s over. Nada. Not even close. Easiest category of the night, and the second easiest prediction ever, behind only Heath Ledger last year. And guess what? He deserves it. Without him, “Basterds” doesn’t get any of the big nods. None. It’s not the same movie. The reason he is even in the “supporting” category is because the whole movie rests on his shoulders, with him supporting the rest of the cast. And it’s easy to see, why. Waltz masters every scene he is in, and seems to bring out the best in every actor around him. You look at him throughout the movie knowing he knows more than every other character up until the bitter end, and he plays the character as such. It’s one of those roles much like Ledger’s last year or Daniel Day Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” that will be talked about for years to come.

Best Actress

Who will win: Sandra Bullock

Who should win: Gabourey Sidibe

Sandra Bullock has been on an awards-bender as of late. At the beginning of the season, it seemed that Meryl Streep would win, but since then Bullock has been winning major awards left and right, including the SAG award, which, as stated previously, contains the same voting block as the Academy Awards. Her performance is actually an a-typical performance, as the Academy usually goes towards broken women, such as Halle Barry in “Monster’s Ball” or Charlize Theron in “Monster.” But Bullock fits into the mold usually reserved for Supporting Actress. However, a newer mold for Best Actress has taken shape, specifically the mold of a comedian turned serious actor playing a real person. This includes Reese Witherspoon (who fits Bullock’s resume pretty similarly) in “Walk the Line” and Julia Roberts in “Erin Brockovich.” Expect Sandra to extend this new precedent come Oscar Night.

That said, I believe newcomer Gabourey Sidibe should win. Her performance in Precious has been overshadowed by Mo’Nique’s, but that doesn’t change the fact that her performance should bring you to tears. It is sad and moving and triumphant, and if Sidibe has been more famous, this award would be hers. Not to take anything away from Bullock, who is deserving and underrated, but Sidibe gave the best performance of the year.

As for the other actresses in this category, Mirren and Streep already have statuettes in this very category, and Mulligan may be a bit too young for the Academy’s tastes. She’ll most likely be nominated again.

Best Actor

Who will win: Jeff Bridges

Who should win: Jeff Bridges

Jeff Bridges is pretty much a lock-up in this category, and his main competition will be Jeremy Renner for “The Hurt Locker.” Bridges has been nominated 4 times previously, but has never won, which is a shame, because he is an actor who always gives a stellar performance no matter what the role is. He will finally get his trophy come Oscar Night, as he, too, has won most of the major awards, including the SAG award. Renner, who carries “The Hurt Locker,” would be deserving of a win, too, and I would be happy if he did win, but Bridges (once again) gives it his all, which is tough to beat by any other actor in Hollywood today. And to round out the other nominees, Clooney and Freeman both have awards, and Firth will be nominated in the future, so don’t cry for him.

Best Director

Who will win: Kathryn Bigelow

Who should win: Kathryn Bigelow

Former Lovers. Who Will Win?

This award is one of the tougher to predict, but not impossible. Rather, this award’s winner may have negative consequences on the actual winner of the Best Picture award, as it will no doubt come down to “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker.” I’ll explain that when I get to Best Picture. For now, though, Bigelow seems to have this award leaning in her favor. She won the Director’s Guild award (the first woman to do so) and has just recently won the Producer’s Guild Award. Through a bit of research, I have found that, in the past 36 years, only 4(!) times has the person who has won the Director’s Guild Award for Best Director NOT won the award at the Academy Award for Best Director. Now, James Cameron may very well win this award, but as I said, the odds seem to favor Bigelow, and I’d have to give the edge to her.

Now, it’s not enough that she most likely will win, but Bigelow deserves this win. “The Hurt Locker” is one of the most suspenseful films I have seen in years, and the action and pacing are second to none. For a borderline one-note concept (man with no fear in the bomb squad), Bigelow fleshes out the world of a day-in-the-life of an Iraqi soldier with realistic characters who act as they should, and she keeps tension high when it needs to be, and finds a proper balance between tension-filled humor and heart-stopping action. This is very realistic to what the soldiers in Iraq feel, and thus Bigelow has captures the essence of war more realistically than any other film in history (more so than Saving Private Ryan, which, as I’ve written research papers about, steals many cliches concepts from past war films.)

Best Picture

What will win: The Hurt Locker

What should win: Up

This is it. The big one. The one everyone will be wondering about and discussing after it’s over. Best Picture. It’s most likely going to come down to “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker,” and I’m giving “The Hurt Locker” the edge for a few reasons. Keep in mind, upsets happen, and don’t be surprised is Bigelow wins Director and “Avatar” wins best picture. Let me explain. This year is similar to two other years in film, mainly 1998 and 2005. In 1998, two films were up against each other that were similar to these, at least in scope: “Shakespeare in Love” and “Saving Private Ryan.” Steven Speilberg won for SPR but SiL won for Best Picture. “Shakespeare” was a smaller budget movie with a more arthouse feel, whereas “Ryan” was a big budget film with a famous action director who had won big before. 2005 was similar. “Crash” vs. “Brokeback Mountain.” An up-and-down Hollywood film against a hot-button issue film. Ang Lee won for Director, Crash for picture.

While this may seem to lean in “Avatar’s” favor for winning Best Picture, these examples are exceptions. More often than not, the winner of Best Director wins Best Picture. But it’s not as cut and dry. Best Picture has everyone vote on it. Screenwriters, Actors, Directors, Producers, and any member of the Academy. This could help or hurt “Hurt Locker.” “The Hurt Locker” has won the main award from the Director’s Guild and Producer’s Guild, but lost the Actor’s Guild (the Screenwriter’s Guild Awards haven’t happened yet). “Avatar” won the Golden Globe, but wasn’t even nominated for the SAG award. The last film to win Best Picture without being nominated for the SAG award for best ensemble? Motherfuckin’ “Titanic.”

You can see why this is a tough one.

The Producer’s Guild Award doesn’t help, either. In the last nine years, their top award has aligned with the Academy 5 times. That’s barely better than half the time. Coin flip.

Could this idiot be the smartest man in the world?

However, I lean towards “The Hurt Locker” because of momentum. Momentum is key in these awards, and the last major award “Avatar” won (The Golden Globe) was won weeks ago, which is too long ago in this industry. You have to win, and keep winning. “Crash” gained momentum at the SAG awards. “Avatar” just hasn’t gained traction, and all it really has going for it is being the top grossing picture of all time, which in the past helped, but now it’s questionable. I’d give this one…barely…to “The Hurt Locker.”

That said, I believe “Up” should win this year. It’s one of the best films to come out in years, and it quite frankly is perfect. Everything about it screams amazing, and it’s one of the few films to come out in years that actually transforms you to a new world, and makes you care about the characters. You want them to succeed, you cry for them, and you fall in love with them. The details in the visuals are striking, and they’re not there just to be there (sorry “Avatar”) but they serve a purpose. The colors describe the mood for a scene, vibrant for happy, dark for sad. Every shot has a purpose. The script is fantastic, and so is the acting. It’s just one of the best films I have ever seen.

Wrap Up

So this was a LONG ass post (over 2500 words), and I apologize. But if you actually read my explanations (rather than just what will/should win) then I think you’ll agree with my picks. It’ll be an interesting year for the Academy Awards, and I for one will be watching with anticipation, for nothing else then to see how wrong right I will be. And of course, I’ll be writing about it all over this blog when I’m done.